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Magic formula strategy for medium and long term investing identifying value stocks

Highlights

  • Popular strategy developed by Joel GreenBlatt, one of the popular fund managers . His popular book "The Little book which beats the Market" is a good read for further understanding of this concept.
  • Stocks for investment are selected based on two important parameters, Price Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio) and Return on Capital Employed (ROCE)
  • In general lower PE Ratio stocks are considered good for investments , similarly higher ROCE stocks are considered good for investments
  • Concept is to strike a balance between PE Ratio and ROCE by assigning consolidated ranking to the stocks and pick the value stocks
  • Suitable for investing in medium and long term basis
  • Useful for Tax harvesting

Magic formula strategy for medium and long term investing identifying value stocks


Analysis to pick value stocks

  • From any reliable screener website , download the complete list of stocks with PE ratio and ROCE values and export to a CSV or Excel sheet
  • This formula works well for non banking stocks as in banking stocks profits earning calculation method is different .   Hence , banking and finance related stocks dealing with loans may be excluded from list
  • Add a new column "PE Rank" , sort the stocks based on PE in ascending order . In PE Rank column assign ranking starting from value 1 .
  • Add a new column "ROCE Rank" , sort the stocks based on PE in descending order . In PE Rank column assign ranking starting from value 1 .
  • Add a new column "Final Rank" , Add up PE Rank and ROCE rank and then sort the final rank in ascending order
  • Top stocks in this sorted list are considered as value stocks which strike a balance with good PE Ratio and ROCE

How to Invest for maximum returns

  • Divide the investment capital into 6 parts . Say for example if Rs.120000 , then 20K * 6 installments
  • Invest each installment during alternate months i.e say April then June,Aug and so on. So that in a year all 6 installments get invested
  • During each investment , invest equally in the top 5 stocks from the analysis ranking sheet. Say 20K installment , divide into 4K and invest in top 5 stocks
  • This will result in total about 5 * 6 = 30 stocks by end of 1 year in investment portfolio
  • During each investment on alternate month , the analysis ranking sheet to be recalculated , new top stocks from list to be selected and invested
  • At the end of 1st year , the first installment stocks irrespective of returns accumulated to be sold and new value stocks to picked and invested
  • In this way investment in value stocks get rotated and returns are balanced.
  • For Tax harvesting , just before a week of end of financial year - loss making stocks may be sold instead of the start of new financial year.
  • Good returns may be expected during the 2nd and 3rd year of investment cycle
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The content is based on publicly available information and personal opinions. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses or damages incurred as a result of following the information provided in this article.  
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